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Serie B · Italy
Modena vs Hellas Verona prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Modena host Hellas Verona in the Serie B (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Modena 3–2 Hellas Verona.
Going into the match, Modena had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 8. Hellas Verona had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Modena's last 10 and 7 of Hellas Verona's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Modena averaged 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Hellas Verona averaged 1.43 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.31 goals from Modena and 1.37 from Hellas Verona. From that it rates a home win at 34%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Modena (green) and Hellas Verona (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | WDLWW | 1.60 | 0.80 | 40% | 50% |
| Hellas Verona | WWLWW | 2.10 | 1.10 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.05 |
| Modena Win | 46% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.