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Major League Soccer · USA
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Minnesota United FC host Houston Dynamo in the Major League Soccer (USA) on 11 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo.
Going into the match, Minnesota United FC had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 25. Houston Dynamo had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 10 of Minnesota United FC's last 10 and 3 of Houston Dynamo's last 10; 9 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Minnesota United FC averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Houston Dynamo averaged 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from Minnesota United FC and 1.70 from Houston Dynamo. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 45%, against 45%, 27% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Minnesota United FC (green) and Houston Dynamo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | LLLLL | 2.30 | 2.50 | 100% | 90% |
| Houston Dynamo | LDLWD | 0.90 | 0.80 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.