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Cup · Lithuania
Minija vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Minija host Kauno Žalgiris in the Cup (Lithuania) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Minija 0–3 Kauno Žalgiris.
Going into the match, Minija had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 30 and conceding 5. Kauno Žalgiris had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Minija's last 10 and 3 of Kauno Žalgiris's last 10; 9 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Minija averaged 2.75 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Kauno Žalgiris averaged 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Minija and 1.29 from Kauno Žalgiris. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 34%, against 16%, 20% and 64% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 50%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Minija (green) and Kauno Žalgiris (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minija | WWWWW | 3.00 | 0.50 | 30% | 90% |
| Kauno Žalgiris | WLWWW | 1.80 | 0.80 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.23 |
| Kauno Žalgiris Win | 65% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.68 |
| Kauno Žalgiris HT & FT | 45% | 2.05 |
| 1-2 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.