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Championship · England
Millwall vs Swansea prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Millwall host Swansea in the Championship (England) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Millwall 0–1 Swansea.
Going into the match, Millwall had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 16. Swansea had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Millwall's last 10 and 5 of Swansea's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Millwall averaged 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Swansea averaged 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.96 goals from Millwall and 1.07 from Swansea. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 36%, against 38%, 27% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 42%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Millwall (green) and Swansea (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.