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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Millesimo vs Borgosesia prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Millesimo host Borgosesia in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.35, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Millesimo 3–0 Borgosesia.
Going into the match, Millesimo had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 7 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Borgosesia had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 6, with 5 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Millesimo's last 7 and 3 of Borgosesia's last 6; 3 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Millesimo averaged 2.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Borgosesia averaged 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Millesimo and 1.04 from Borgosesia. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 16%, against 41%, 31% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Millesimo (green) and Borgosesia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millesimo | LLWLW | 1.43 | 1.57 | 43% | 43% |
| Borgosesia | LDWDD | 0.83 | 1.17 | 50% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 7 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.61 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.13 |
| Millesimo Win | 41% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.