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Primera Nacional · Argentina
Midland vs Atletico DE Rafaela prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Midland host Atletico DE Rafaela in the Primera Nacional (Argentina) on 10 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Midland 4–0 Atletico DE Rafaela.
Going into the match, Midland had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 12. Atletico DE Rafaela had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Midland's last 10 and 5 of Atletico DE Rafaela's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Midland averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Atletico DE Rafaela averaged 0.23 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.78 goals from Midland and 0.63 from Atletico DE Rafaela. From that it rates a home win at 64%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 12%, against 54%, 30% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Midland (green) and Atletico DE Rafaela (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midland | DLWWL | 1.10 | 1.20 | 40% | 40% |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | LLWLL | 1.10 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Midland
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| BTTS No | 64% | 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Midland Win | 51% | 1.73 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Midland HT & FT | 33% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.