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Championship · England
Middlesbrough vs Wolves prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Middlesbrough host Wolves in the Championship (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Middlesbrough 1–0 Wolves.
Going into the match, Middlesbrough had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 16. Wolves had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Middlesbrough's last 10 and 5 of Wolves's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Middlesbrough averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Wolves averaged 1.17 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.44 goals from Middlesbrough and 1.40 from Wolves. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 42%, 25% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Middlesbrough (green) and Wolves (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | DDWLW | 1.90 | 1.60 | 80% | 80% |
| Wolves | WLWDL | 2.00 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.