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Second League - Group 3 · Russia
Metallurg Lipetsk vs Zenit Penza prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Metallurg Lipetsk host Zenit Penza in the Second League - Group 3 (Russia) on 3 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.56, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Zenit Penza.
Going into the match, Metallurg Lipetsk had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Zenit Penza had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Metallurg Lipetsk's last 10 and 4 of Zenit Penza's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Metallurg Lipetsk averaged 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Zenit Penza averaged 0.83 scored and 2.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.06 goals from Metallurg Lipetsk and 0.60 from Zenit Penza. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 9%, against 56%, 22% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Metallurg Lipetsk (green) and Zenit Penza (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metallurg Lipetsk | DWWLL | 1.20 | 0.90 | 40% | 50% |
| Zenit Penza | LDDLW | 0.90 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Jun 2026 · Zenit Penza 2–3 Metallurg Lipetsk
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 77% | 1.26 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.27 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.56 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.61 |
| Metallurg Lipetsk Win | 56% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| 1-1 | 10% | 9.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.