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Persha Liga · Ukraine
Metal Kharkiv vs Yarud Mariupol' prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Metal Kharkiv host Yarud Mariupol' in the Persha Liga (Ukraine) on 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Yarud Mariupol' to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Metal Kharkiv had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Yarud Mariupol' had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Metal Kharkiv's last 10 and 6 of Yarud Mariupol''s last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Metal Kharkiv averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Yarud Mariupol' averaged 1.75 scored and 0.83 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.75 goals from Metal Kharkiv and 1.06 from Yarud Mariupol'. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 41%, against 29%, 30% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Metal Kharkiv (green) and Yarud Mariupol' (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metal Kharkiv | LDDWL | 1.00 | 0.90 | 30% | 30% |
| Yarud Mariupol' | WWDDW | 2.10 | 0.80 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Apr 2026 · Metal Kharkiv 1–1 Yarud Mariupol'
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.79 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.35 |
| Yarud Mariupol' Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Persha Liga matches that day
- Chernihiv vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk · 23 Oct 2026, 08:00 UTC · Persha Liga
Published pick: Double Chance X2