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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Mérida AD vs Cacereño prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mérida AD host Cacereño in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mérida AD 2–0 Cacereño.
Going into the match, Mérida AD had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 22. Cacereño had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Mérida AD's last 10 and 3 of Cacereño's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mérida AD averaged 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Cacereño averaged 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Mérida AD and 1.34 from Cacereño. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 41%, against 45%, 28% and 27% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mérida AD (green) and Cacereño (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 53% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.