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Primera C · Argentina
Mercedes vs Leones de Rosario prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mercedes host Leones de Rosario in the Primera C (Argentina) on 17 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Mercedes to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mercedes 2–1 Leones de Rosario.
Going into the match, Mercedes had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Leones de Rosario had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Mercedes's last 10 and 3 of Leones de Rosario's last 10; 2 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mercedes averaged 1.31 goals scored and 0.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Leones de Rosario averaged 0.85 scored and 0.69 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Mercedes and 0.83 from Leones de Rosario. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 30%, against 26%, 32% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mercedes (green) and Leones de Rosario (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | WDWWD | 0.80 | 1.20 | 30% | 20% |
| Leones de Rosario | WWLDD | 1.10 | 0.50 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.50 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 41% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.80 |
| 0-0 | 17% | 5.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.