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Serie D - Girone H · Italy
Melfi vs Nocerina prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Melfi host Nocerina in the Serie D - Girone H (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.32, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Melfi 0–1 Nocerina.
Going into the match, Melfi had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 5. Nocerina had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 12 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Melfi's last 5 and 5 of Nocerina's last 9; 1 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Melfi averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Nocerina averaged 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.68 goals from Melfi and 0.94 from Nocerina. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 39%, against 22%, 25% and 53% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Melfi (green) and Nocerina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 76% | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.39 |
| Nocerina Win | 53% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.82 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.89 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48% | 1.98 |
| Nocerina HT & FT | 34% | 2.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.