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J-League Cup · Japan
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction and preview
14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Matsumoto Yamaga host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J-League Cup (Japan) on 14 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
Going into the match, Matsumoto Yamaga had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. Sanfrecce Hiroshima had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Matsumoto Yamaga's last 10 and 4 of Sanfrecce Hiroshima's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Matsumoto Yamaga averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Sanfrecce Hiroshima averaged 1.77 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.62 goals from Matsumoto Yamaga and 2.13 from Sanfrecce Hiroshima. From that it rates a home win at 9%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 72%, against 8%, 17% and 75% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Matsumoto Yamaga (green) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | WLWWD | 1.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | WWWWW | 2.50 | 0.60 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.48 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1st Half Win | 58% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima HT & FT | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.