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J3 League · Japan
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Kagoshima United prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Matsumoto Yamaga host Kagoshima United in the J3 League (Japan) on 11 Oct 2026, 04:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Kagoshima United.
Going into the match, Matsumoto Yamaga had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Kagoshima United had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Matsumoto Yamaga's last 10 and 6 of Kagoshima United's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Matsumoto Yamaga averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Kagoshima United averaged 1.77 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.00 goals from Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.29 from Kagoshima United. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 42%, against 29%, 29% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Matsumoto Yamaga (green) and Kagoshima United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | LWWDL | 1.20 | 1.40 | 60% | 50% |
| Kagoshima United | LWDWW | 1.90 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.74 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.00 |
| Kagoshima United Win | 41% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.