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J3 League · Japan
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Gainare Tottori prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Matsumoto Yamaga host Gainare Tottori in the J3 League (Japan) on 3 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Matsumoto Yamaga 0–1 Gainare Tottori.
Going into the match, Matsumoto Yamaga had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Gainare Tottori had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Matsumoto Yamaga's last 10 and 7 of Gainare Tottori's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Matsumoto Yamaga averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Gainare Tottori averaged 1.82 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.12 from Gainare Tottori. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 30%, against 59%, 24% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Matsumoto Yamaga (green) and Gainare Tottori (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | WWDLD | 1.20 | 1.30 | 60% | 50% |
| Gainare Tottori | WLLWL | 1.90 | 1.60 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.45 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga Win | 59% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga HT & FT | 39% | 2.38 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.