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Serie D - Girone H · Italy
Martina Franca vs Francavilla prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Martina Franca host Francavilla in the Serie D - Girone H (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Martina Franca Win — Martina Franca to win. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Martina Franca 1–0 Francavilla.
Going into the match, Martina Franca had won 5, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Francavilla had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9, with 14 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Martina Franca's last 10 and 4 of Francavilla's last 9; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Martina Franca averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Francavilla averaged 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.73 goals from Martina Franca and 0.57 from Francavilla. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 11%, against 56%, 25% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Martina Franca (green) and Francavilla (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martina Franca | WLWWL | 1.60 | 1.30 | 60% | 70% |
| Francavilla | LLLLW | 1.56 | 1.00 | 44% | 56% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.41 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.42 |
| Martina Franca Win | 56% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.82 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Martina Franca HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
| 1-0 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.