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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Maritimo vs FC Porto prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maritimo host FC Porto in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 10 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto.
Going into the match, Maritimo had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 13. FC Porto had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Maritimo's last 10 and 4 of FC Porto's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maritimo averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home FC Porto averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.70 goals from Maritimo and 1.91 from FC Porto. From that it rates a home win at 12%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 65%, against 11%, 19% and 70% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Maritimo (green) and FC Porto (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| FC Porto Win | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| FC Porto HT & FT | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.