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Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Spain
Marino vs Playas Sotavento prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Marino host Playas Sotavento in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Marino to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Marino 6–1 Playas Sotavento.
Going into the match, Marino had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 20. Playas Sotavento had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 3, with 2 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Marino's last 10 and 1 of Playas Sotavento's last 3; 7 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Marino averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Playas Sotavento averaged 0.00 scored and 5.00 conceded across 1.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.24 goals from Marino and 0.91 from Playas Sotavento. From that it rates a home win at 82%, a draw at 12% and an away win at 7%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 94%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Marino (green) and Playas Sotavento (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marino | DWLLL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 50% | 70% |
| Playas Sotavento | DLL | 0.67 | 3.00 | 33% | 67% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Marino Win | 50% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Marino HT & FT | 32% | 2.88 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.