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Serie C · Brazil
Maringá vs Ferroviária prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maringá host Ferroviária in the Serie C (Brazil) on 17 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maringá 1–1 Ferroviária.
Going into the match, Maringá had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Ferroviária had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Maringá's last 10 and 4 of Ferroviária's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maringá averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Ferroviária averaged 1.00 scored and 0.86 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.11 goals from Maringá and 1.01 from Ferroviária. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 31%, against 42%, 30% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Maringá (green) and Ferroviária (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maringá | WDDWL | 1.00 | 0.70 | 30% | 20% |
| Ferroviária | WLDWW | 1.70 | 1.00 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.15 |
| Maringá Win | 39% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.