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Veikkausliiga · Finland
Mariehamn vs Ilves prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mariehamn host Ilves in the Veikkausliiga (Finland) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mariehamn 1–1 Ilves.
Going into the match, Mariehamn had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 14. Ilves had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Mariehamn's last 10 and 4 of Ilves's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mariehamn averaged 0.92 goals scored and 1.31 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Ilves averaged 1.47 scored and 1.76 conceded across 17.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.94 goals from Mariehamn and 1.57 from Ilves. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 51%, against 33%, 27% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mariehamn (green) and Ilves (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Aug 2026 · Ilves 2–0 Mariehamn
- 18 Apr 2026 · Mariehamn 2–2 Ilves
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Ilves Win | 42% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.