Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite prediction and preview

19 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.57Market probability 60%Final score 2–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Mara Sugar host Mombasa Elite in the FKF Premier League (Kenya) on 19 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Mara Sugar 2–1 Mombasa Elite.

Going into the match, Mara Sugar had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 8 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Mombasa Elite had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 8 conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of Mara Sugar's last 8 and 3 of Mombasa Elite's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mara Sugar averaged 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Mombasa Elite averaged 0.50 scored and 1.17 conceded across 6.

The 1X2 prices imply about 54% for Mara Sugar, 27% for the draw and 19% for Mombasa Elite once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Mara Sugar (green) and Mombasa Elite (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form100% – 0%

Attack100% – 0%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head71% – 29%

Goals64% – 36%

Overall strength56% – 44%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Mara Sugar	DLDLW	0.88	0.88	38%	38%
Mombasa Elite	LWDWL	0.70	0.80	30%	30%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	73%	1.25
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	72%	1.26
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	63%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	60%	1.57
BTTS No	57%	1.62
Mara Sugar Win	54%	1.67
Mara Sugar HT & FT	36%	2.62
Draw	27%	3.30

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.