Home › League stats › UEFA Champions League Women › Manchester City W vs Real Madrid W
UEFA Champions League Women · International
Manchester City W vs Real Madrid W prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Manchester City W host Real Madrid W in the UEFA Champions League Women (International) on 1 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Manchester City W 1–1 Real Madrid W.
Going into the match, Manchester City W had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 27 and conceding 12. Real Madrid W had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester City W's last 10 and 5 of Real Madrid W's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Manchester City W averaged 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Real Madrid W averaged 3.00 scored and 0.60 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.54 goals from Manchester City W and 1.70 from Real Madrid W. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 25%, against 57%, 20% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Manchester City W (green) and Real Madrid W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City W | WDWWW | 2.70 | 1.20 | 70% | 80% |
| Real Madrid W | WDWWD | 2.40 | 0.80 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Manchester City W Win | 57% | 1.65 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.