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FA WSL · England
Manchester City W vs Arsenal W prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Manchester City W host Arsenal W in the FA WSL (England) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Manchester City W 4–2 Arsenal W.
Going into the match, Manchester City W had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 10. Arsenal W had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester City W's last 10 and 4 of Arsenal W's last 10; 7 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Manchester City W averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Arsenal W averaged 1.57 scored and 1.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.39 goals from Manchester City W and 1.12 from Arsenal W. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 29%, against 39%, 27% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Manchester City W (green) and Arsenal W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City W | DWDWW | 2.60 | 1.00 | 70% | 70% |
| Arsenal W | DLWDD | 1.30 | 0.60 | 40% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.