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Non League Premier - Southern South · England
Malvern Town vs Yate Town prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Malvern Town host Yate Town in the Non League Premier - Southern South (England) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.43, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Malvern Town 3–2 Yate Town.
Going into the match, Malvern Town had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 28. Yate Town had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Malvern Town's last 10 and 5 of Yate Town's last 10; 8 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Malvern Town averaged 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Yate Town averaged 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.71 goals from Malvern Town and 1.52 from Yate Town. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 33%, against 42%, 25% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Malvern Town (green) and Yate Town (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malvern Town | LLDWL | 1.20 | 2.80 | 70% | 80% |
| Yate Town | LDLDD | 1.20 | 1.90 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.26 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.58 |
| Malvern Town Win | 42% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 39% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.