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Allsvenskan · Sweden
Malmo FF vs Kalmar FF prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Malmo FF host Kalmar FF in the Allsvenskan (Sweden) on 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Malmo FF 1–0 Kalmar FF.
Going into the match, Malmo FF had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 10. Kalmar FF had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Malmo FF's last 10 and 2 of Kalmar FF's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Malmo FF averaged 2.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kalmar FF averaged 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Malmo FF and 1.01 from Kalmar FF. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 22%, against 53%, 25% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Malmo FF (green) and Kalmar FF (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Jul 2026 · Kalmar FF 2–2 Malmo FF
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.