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Non League Premier - Isthmian · England
Maldon & Tiptree vs Welling United prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maldon & Tiptree host Welling United in the Non League Premier - Isthmian (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maldon & Tiptree 0–1 Welling United.
Going into the match, Maldon & Tiptree had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 32. Welling United had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Maldon & Tiptree's last 10 and 6 of Welling United's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maldon & Tiptree averaged 1.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Welling United averaged 1.38 scored and 2.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Maldon & Tiptree and 2.35 from Welling United. From that it rates a home win at 17%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 63%, against 20%, 23% and 57% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Maldon & Tiptree (green) and Welling United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maldon & Tiptree | LLLLL | 1.40 | 3.20 | 80% | 80% |
| Welling United | WDLWW | 1.80 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.25 |
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 1.51 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.57 |
| Welling United Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| Welling United HT & FT | 34% | 2.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.