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La Liga · Spain
Malaga vs Espanyol prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Malaga host Espanyol in the La Liga (Spain) on 9 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Malaga 1–1 Espanyol.
Going into the match, Malaga had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 18. Espanyol had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Malaga's last 10 and 8 of Espanyol's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Malaga averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Espanyol averaged 1.55 scored and 1.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.35 goals from Malaga and 1.38 from Espanyol. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 37%, against 34%, 31% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Malaga (green) and Espanyol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.