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Liga Nacional · Guatemala
Malacateco vs Guastatoya prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Malacateco host Guastatoya in the Liga Nacional (Guatemala) on 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Malacateco 2–0 Guastatoya.
Going into the match, Malacateco had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 14. Guastatoya had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Malacateco's last 10 and 7 of Guastatoya's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Malacateco averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Guastatoya averaged 0.89 scored and 1.33 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.12 goals from Malacateco and 1.02 from Guastatoya. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 31%, against 48%, 28% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Malacateco (green) and Guastatoya (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malacateco | LLWDL | 1.10 | 1.40 | 30% | 30% |
| Guastatoya | WWWWD | 1.40 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Guastatoya 4–0 Malacateco
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.68 |
| Malacateco Win | 49% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Malacateco HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.