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National League - South · England
Maidenhead vs Tonbridge Angels prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Maidenhead host Tonbridge Angels in the National League - South (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Maidenhead 0–1 Tonbridge Angels.
Going into the match, Maidenhead had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Tonbridge Angels had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Maidenhead's last 10 and 5 of Tonbridge Angels's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Maidenhead averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Tonbridge Angels averaged 3.00 scored and 0.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.85 goals from Maidenhead and 1.45 from Tonbridge Angels. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 50%, against 44%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maidenhead | WLDLW | 1.30 | 1.20 | 40% | 50% |
| Tonbridge Angels | LLWDL | 1.60 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.