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Liga 3 · Portugal
Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Mafra host CF Os Belenenses in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Mafra 2–2 CF Os Belenenses.
Going into the match, Mafra had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 11. CF Os Belenenses had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Mafra's last 10 and 6 of CF Os Belenenses's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Mafra averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home CF Os Belenenses averaged 1.70 scored and 1.60 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Mafra and 1.63 from CF Os Belenenses. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 38%, against 31%, 28% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Mafra (green) and CF Os Belenenses (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | DLWDL | 1.70 | 1.10 | 60% | 50% |
| CF Os Belenenses | WWWWW | 2.00 | 1.10 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · CF Os Belenenses 3–1 Mafra
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.37 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.77 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| CF Os Belenenses Win | 40% | 2.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.