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Segunda Liga · Portugal
Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lusitânia Lourosa host Chaves in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves.
Going into the match, Lusitânia Lourosa had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Chaves had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Lusitânia Lourosa's last 10 and 5 of Chaves's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lusitânia Lourosa averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Chaves averaged 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.48 goals from Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.00 from Chaves. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 24%, against 39%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lusitânia Lourosa (green) and Chaves (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | WWWWD | 1.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| Chaves | LLWWL | 1.00 | 2.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.