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Ettan - Södra · Sweden
Lund vs Trelleborg prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lund host Trelleborg in the Ettan - Södra (Sweden) on 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lund 2–4 Trelleborg.
Going into the match, Lund had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Trelleborg had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Lund's last 10 and 7 of Trelleborg's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lund averaged 2.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Trelleborg averaged 1.83 scored and 0.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Lund and 1.69 from Trelleborg. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 36%, against 41%, 25% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lund (green) and Trelleborg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lund | WLLLW | 2.10 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
| Trelleborg | WWWWW | 2.00 | 1.30 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Trelleborg 2–2 Lund
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.