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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Lugo vs UD Logroñés prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lugo host UD Logroñés in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 12 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lugo 3–1 UD Logroñés.
Going into the match, Lugo had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 6. UD Logroñés had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lugo's last 10 and 6 of UD Logroñés's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lugo averaged 0.88 goals scored and 0.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home UD Logroñés averaged 2.13 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.30 goals from Lugo and 0.97 from UD Logroñés. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 27%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lugo (green) and UD Logroñés (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | WWWWD | 1.30 | 0.60 | 50% | 40% |
| UD Logroñés | WWDWW | 2.50 | 0.90 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
| Lugo Win | 38% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.