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Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ludogorets host Cherno More Varna in the Friendlies Clubs (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ludogorets Win — Ludogorets to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ludogorets 5–0 Cherno More Varna.
Going into the match, Ludogorets had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 9. Cherno More Varna had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Ludogorets's last 10 and 6 of Cherno More Varna's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ludogorets averaged 1.65 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 17 matches; away from home Cherno More Varna averaged 0.58 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.70 goals from Ludogorets and 0.73 from Cherno More Varna. From that it rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 15% and an away win at 7%, against 60%, 22% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ludogorets (green) and Cherno More Varna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | WWWDD | 2.00 | 0.90 | 70% | 60% |
| Cherno More Varna | WDDLL | 1.10 | 1.90 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Aug 2026 · Cherno More Varna 2–3 Ludogorets
- 9 Apr 2026 · Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More Varna
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Ludogorets Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Ludogorets HT & FT | 41% | 2.25 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.