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First League · Bulgaria
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ludogorets host Arda Kardzhali in the First League (Bulgaria) on 12 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Ludogorets Win — Ludogorets to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ludogorets 5–0 Arda Kardzhali.
Going into the match, Ludogorets had won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 9. Arda Kardzhali had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Ludogorets's last 10 and 5 of Arda Kardzhali's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ludogorets averaged 1.83 goals scored and 0.89 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Arda Kardzhali averaged 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.16 goals from Ludogorets and 0.63 from Arda Kardzhali. From that it rates a home win at 72%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 9%, against 62%, 23% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ludogorets (green) and Arda Kardzhali (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | WWWWD | 2.30 | 0.90 | 70% | 70% |
| Arda Kardzhali | LDLLW | 1.40 | 1.30 | 50% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Apr 2026 · Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Ludogorets
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Ludogorets Win | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.