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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Lorca Deportiva vs Poblense prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lorca Deportiva host Poblense in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 1 Nov 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Lorca Deportiva to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 76% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Lorca Deportiva had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 12. Poblense had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Lorca Deportiva's last 10 and 5 of Poblense's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lorca Deportiva averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Poblense averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.08 goals from Lorca Deportiva and 0.91 from Poblense. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 29%, against 47%, 28% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorca Deportiva | LDWLW | 1.00 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Poblense | LWDWL | 1.00 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.84 |
| Lorca Deportiva Win | 48% | 1.90 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 46% | 2.03 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Lorca Deportiva form and statistics
- Poblense form and statistics
- Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 statistics
Other Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 matches that day
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Published pick: La Nucía Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.22 - Peña Deportiva vs Atlético Baleares · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Atlético Baleares Draw No Bet @ 1.44 - Ucam Murcia vs Mallorca II · 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
Published pick: Ucam Murcia Draw No Bet @ 1.28