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First Division · Ireland
Longford Town vs UCD prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Longford Town host UCD in the First Division (Ireland) on 24 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Longford Town had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 16. UCD had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Longford Town's last 10 and 9 of UCD's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Longford Town averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home UCD averaged 1.87 scored and 1.67 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.42 goals from Longford Town and 1.82 from UCD. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 29%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 39%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Longford Town (green) and UCD (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Longford Town | WDDWW | 1.40 | 1.60 | 50% | 50% |
| UCD | WDWLL | 2.20 | 2.10 | 90% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 Oct 2026 · UCD 1–1 Longford Town
- 4 Jul 2026 · Longford Town 2–1 UCD
- 1 May 2026 · UCD 2–0 Longford Town
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.23 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.23 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.45 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.51 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 59% | 1.58 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.77 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other First Division matches that day
- Kerry FC vs Bray Wanderers · 24 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · First Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.43