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First League · Bulgaria
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lokomotiv Sofia host Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the First League (Bulgaria) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Lokomotiv Sofia to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Going into the match, Lokomotiv Sofia had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Lokomotiv Plovdiv had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Lokomotiv Sofia's last 10 and 3 of Lokomotiv Plovdiv's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lokomotiv Sofia averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Lokomotiv Plovdiv averaged 0.69 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.06 goals from Lokomotiv Sofia and 0.97 from Lokomotiv Plovdiv. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 31%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lokomotiv Sofia (green) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | WLDLD | 1.10 | 1.80 | 80% | 60% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | WDLWL | 0.70 | 1.20 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Lokomotiv Sofia Win | 45% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.