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Liga Nacional · Honduras
Lobos Upnfm vs CD Marathon prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lobos Upnfm host CD Marathon in the Liga Nacional (Honduras) on 11 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lobos Upnfm 0–0 CD Marathon.
Going into the match, Lobos Upnfm had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 14. CD Marathon had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Lobos Upnfm's last 10 and 5 of CD Marathon's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lobos Upnfm averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home CD Marathon averaged 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.86 goals from Lobos Upnfm and 1.04 from CD Marathon. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 38%, against 26%, 27% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 39%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lobos Upnfm (green) and CD Marathon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lobos Upnfm | WWLLL | 0.90 | 1.40 | 40% | 30% |
| CD Marathon | LLWDW | 1.80 | 1.10 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.34 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 2.00 |
| CD Marathon Win | 43% | 1.95 |
| CD Marathon HT & FT | 29% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.