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FAW Championship · Wales
llanelli AFC vs Baglan Dragons prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
llanelli AFC host Baglan Dragons in the FAW Championship (Wales) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Baglan Dragons to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: llanelli AFC 1–2 Baglan Dragons.
Going into the match, llanelli AFC had won 0, drawn 2 and lost 8 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 33. Baglan Dragons had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of llanelli AFC's last 10 and 5 of Baglan Dragons's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home llanelli AFC averaged 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Baglan Dragons averaged 0.75 scored and 0.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.61 goals from llanelli AFC and 2.10 from Baglan Dragons. From that it rates a home win at 9%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 71%, against 29%, 25% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 91%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between llanelli AFC (green) and Baglan Dragons (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFC | LLLLD | 0.60 | 3.30 | 40% | 70% |
| Baglan Dragons | LLWLW | 1.00 | 1.10 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 76% | 1.21 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.49 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.55 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Baglan Dragons Win | 46% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.