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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Livorno vs Grosseto prediction and preview
16 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Livorno host Grosseto in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 16 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Livorno 4–4 Grosseto.
Going into the match, Livorno had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Grosseto had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Livorno's last 10 and 6 of Grosseto's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Livorno averaged 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Grosseto averaged 1.86 scored and 0.57 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.98 goals from Livorno and 1.56 from Grosseto. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 30%, against 43%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Livorno (green) and Grosseto (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.