Home › League stats › Championship › Livingston vs Ayr Utd
Championship · Scotland
Livingston vs Ayr Utd prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Livingston host Ayr Utd in the Championship (Scotland) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Livingston 1–2 Ayr Utd.
Going into the match, Livingston had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 7. Ayr Utd had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Livingston's last 10 and 5 of Ayr Utd's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Livingston averaged 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Ayr Utd averaged 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.46 goals from Livingston and 0.90 from Ayr Utd. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 22%, against 60%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Livingston (green) and Ayr Utd (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livingston | WDWLL | 2.00 | 0.70 | 20% | 30% |
| Ayr Utd | LWLLD | 1.30 | 1.30 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Livingston Win | 60% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.