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Premier League · England
Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liverpool host Manchester City in the Premier League (England) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City.
Going into the match, Liverpool had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 13. Manchester City had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 26 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Liverpool's last 10 and 5 of Manchester City's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liverpool averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Manchester City averaged 1.90 scored and 0.90 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.61 goals from Liverpool and 1.96 from Manchester City. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 45%, against 32%, 26% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liverpool (green) and Manchester City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | WWDWW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 60% | 60% |
| Manchester City | WWWWW | 2.60 | 1.00 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.