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Premier League · England
Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction and preview
1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC · Anfield, Liverpool
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liverpool host Arsenal in the Premier League (England) on 1 Nov 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Liverpool had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Arsenal had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Liverpool's last 10 and 4 of Arsenal's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liverpool averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Arsenal averaged 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from Liverpool and 1.36 from Arsenal. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 39%, against 33%, 28% and 39% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liverpool (green) and Arsenal (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 74% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.