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Primera División · Uruguay
Liverpool Montevideo vs Progreso prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liverpool Montevideo host Progreso in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Liverpool Montevideo 3–2 Progreso.
Going into the match, Liverpool Montevideo had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 6. Progreso had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 8 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Liverpool Montevideo's last 10 and 4 of Progreso's last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liverpool Montevideo averaged 1.27 goals scored and 0.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Progreso averaged 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.53 goals from Liverpool Montevideo and 0.52 from Progreso. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 11%, against 54%, 26% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liverpool Montevideo (green) and Progreso (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | WWDLW | 1.80 | 0.60 | 30% | 50% |
| Progreso | WWLLW | 0.80 | 1.30 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Liverpool Montevideo Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.