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Primera División · Uruguay
Liverpool Montevideo vs Penarol prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liverpool Montevideo host Penarol in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 18 Oct 2026, 21:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Penarol.
Going into the match, Liverpool Montevideo had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 9. Penarol had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Liverpool Montevideo's last 10 and 7 of Penarol's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liverpool Montevideo averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Penarol averaged 1.33 scored and 0.87 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.04 goals from Liverpool Montevideo and 0.80 from Penarol. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 26%, against 28%, 28% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liverpool Montevideo (green) and Penarol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | DWWWD | 1.40 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
| Penarol | DWDWD | 1.70 | 0.90 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Penarol 2–1 Liverpool Montevideo
- 14 Apr 2026 · Penarol 0–2 Liverpool Montevideo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance X2 | 72% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 52% | 1.82 |
| Penarol Win | 44% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.