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Copa Uruguay · Uruguay
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo prediction and preview
21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liverpool Montevideo host Cerro Largo in the Copa Uruguay (Uruguay) on 21 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Liverpool Montevideo Win — Liverpool Montevideo to win. It was published at odds of 1.55, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo.
Going into the match, Liverpool Montevideo had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 9. Cerro Largo had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Liverpool Montevideo's last 10 and 5 of Cerro Largo's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liverpool Montevideo averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.62 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Cerro Largo averaged 0.58 scored and 1.25 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.54 goals from Liverpool Montevideo and 0.54 from Cerro Largo. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 12%, against 58%, 24% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liverpool Montevideo (green) and Cerro Largo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | WDWWW | 1.30 | 0.90 | 50% | 40% |
| Cerro Largo | DLLWL | 0.60 | 1.20 | 50% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 31 Aug 2026 · Cerro Largo 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo
- 9 Jun 2026 · Liverpool Montevideo 0–0 Cerro Largo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Liverpool Montevideo Win | 58% | 1.55 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.