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Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina
Liniers vs Excursionistas prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Liniers host Excursionistas in the Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Liniers 1–0 Excursionistas.
Going into the match, Liniers had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Excursionistas had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Liniers's last 10 and 5 of Excursionistas's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Liniers averaged 0.77 goals scored and 0.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Excursionistas averaged 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Liniers and 1.67 from Excursionistas. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 53%, against 23%, 30% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Liniers (green) and Excursionistas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liniers | LLWDD | 1.20 | 1.20 | 50% | 40% |
| Excursionistas | WWWWL | 2.10 | 1.10 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · Excursionistas 4–1 Liniers
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.57 |
| Excursionistas Win | 47% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.