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Ligue 1 · France
Lille vs Le Havre prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Lille host Le Havre in the Ligue 1 (France) on 10 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Lille Win — Lille to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Lille 1–0 Le Havre.
Going into the match, Lille had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 14. Le Havre had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Lille's last 10 and 6 of Le Havre's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Lille averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Le Havre averaged 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.67 goals from Lille and 1.01 from Le Havre. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 22%, against 66%, 22% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Lille (green) and Le Havre (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 May 2026 · Lille 1–1 Le Havre
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 79% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Lille Win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.