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Serie D - Girone I · Italy
Licata vs Sambiase prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Licata host Sambiase in the Serie D - Girone I (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.32, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Licata 2–1 Sambiase.
Going into the match, Licata had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Sambiase had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Licata's last 5 and 7 of Sambiase's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Licata averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Sambiase averaged 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Licata and 1.13 from Sambiase. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 27%, against 30%, 29% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Licata (green) and Sambiase (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Sambiase Win | 41% | 2.20 |
| Sambiase HT & FT | 27% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.